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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

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increases in per capita income that may be realized in many low incom countries to originate out of the modernization of agriculture.
Thus far the conclusions have a favorable ring, but they cover only a pai of the story. The part that remains raises questions about resource problerr that leave little room for hopeful complacency. The problem of depresse areas within agriculture, which is strongly associated with economic growt and agricultural modernization, is likely to become increasingly serious in th larger, agriculturally heterogeneous, low income countries. There are no eas solutions to this problem. Moreover, the problem is compounded by rapi population growth. The massive internal migration of people from these d pressed areas to areas that have a comparative advantage in agricultur productivity, or to other locations with job opportunities, places a hea\ burden on the political process, on the economic system, and on the peop who must bear the cost of migration.
The growth in population under the economic conditions that character!; the low income countries will further increase the supply of the farm lab< force. In the farming areas that are favored by agricultural modernization, tl demand for farm labor will increase for a considerable period while the ma ginal product of this labor increases. Farming units may become smaller, bi fortunately the divisibility of virtually all modern agricultural inputs is su< that the reduction in the size of farms is not giving rise to scale diseconomie except for the public programs that are necessary in disseminating new tec nical and economic information to farmers, and except in rewarding tl higher levels of farming skills associated with schooling.
The unsettled question, with perhaps the most serious potential implic tions, concerns farm people who acquire more real income with which contribute to the modernization of agriculture and consumers in general wl benefit from the lower real cost of food production. What will they do wi the additional savings they acquire as a consequence of these development They may use these additional savings to increase the stock of physical capil or to increase the quality of their children—in terms of health and scho< ing-or to increase the number of children they have and rear. To the best my knowledge, we simply do not know the answer to this question.
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McGraw-Hill, 1968.
2.   Spengler, Joseph J., "The Economist and the Population Questioi
Amer Econ Rev, March 1966.
3.  Bourne, Geoffrey H., ed., "World Hunger:  Past, Present, Prospect!
That There Should Be Great Famine," World Rev Nutrition & Dieteti New York: Karger, Basel, 1968. Vol. IX, pp. production.